Manulife Investment Management expert in Hong Kong said that if the US still imposes Chinese taxes, Trump will be considered a “Christmas thief”.
Su Trinh, Director of Global Macro Strategy of Manulife Investment Management in Hong Kong, said that “this would be a huge shock to the market” if the US actually imposed tariffs on 160 billion USD of Chinese goods on 15 / 12, according to the plan Trump announced a few months ago.
Chris Weston – Research Director of Pepperstone Group also said that this will be “a crazy day”. The S&P 500 may lose 2%. Currencies like the yuan, Australian dollars and Korean won will fluctuate. However, the market may increase slightly after that, especially if the two countries agree to continue negotiations in 2020.
Yesterday, US President Donald Trump imposed steel import duties on Brazil and Argentina, and proposed imposing a tax on France to retaliate its tax with U.S. technology giants. Trump’s preference for taxation sparked the strongest 2-month sell-off session on Wall Street yesterday.
On Bloomberg, Tongli Han – Chief Investment Officer at Deepblue Global Investment predicts “The future will be very gloomy in the short term, about 1-2 months” and “all will turn to risk prevention mode”. “What has happened recently has made the deal even more expensive for Chinese leaders,” he said.
Steve Brice, an investment strategist at Standard Chartered advises that as 2019 nears the end and the prospect of reaching a further trade agreement, it is time for investors to remove their risky assets. “My advice is to cut down stocks, or at least not to join the market right now,” he said, “In the next few weeks, if the market drops 6-7%, consider withdrawing assets. “. In the long run, though, Brice is optimistic that “the US and China will sign a deal. This will reduce risks and help the global economy prosper.”
For Eli Lee – Director of Investment Strategy of Bank of Singapore, the US stock market going down yesterday was an opportunity to buy. The impetus on South American and European countries could be Trump’s attempt to strengthen the “liking to tax” image in negotiations with China.
“When the economy is in a fragile state, if Trump imposes Chinese taxes, the risk of a recession will skyrocket. The White House will not want this situation to last into the 2020 presidential election,” Lee said.