According to many years of statistics, the FIFA World Cup has a big influence on the mood of stock investors.
The number of transactions declined sharply
During the 2010 World Cup held in South Africa, many matches were played at the same time as the trading hours of many stock markets around the world. According to ECB statistics, over 15 large stock markets including Germany, England, France, Italy, Spain, Denmark, Netherlands, America, South Africa, Argentina, etc, there are 3 points worth noting:
- In the market of some countries, every game has a national team (such as England or France) participating, the average number of orders is reduced by 45% and the volume of trading shares is reduced by 55%.
- The market is affected by the matches. Specifically, after a match, each country’s stock index fell an average of 5%. This reduction was statistically significant at lunchtime after the morning session and many investors were not paying attention.
- The heat of the global stock market goes against the World Cup matches. In more than 20% of the time the games were played, global stocks fell. Investors seem to be willing to spend more money on alcohol and popcorn than focus on price lists during this time.
Another 2007 study also showed that during the World Cup, a defeat of the national team could make that national stock market drop sharply the next day.
The slight increase in the stock market of the winning country
After the World Cup, markets with national teams that have won the championship have always gained points since 1974. The only external case for Brazil in 2002, the rest of those markets rose immediately after that to the average. 3.5% and maintained for 3 months.
The stock market of the losing country lost points
In the Goldman Sachs report, 7 out of 9 stock markets of the losers in the final also suffered a sharp decline with an average decrease of 5.6% in the following three months.