Football festival, global stock market will fall points?

Trading volume fell sharply

During the 2010 World Cup held in South Africa, many matches were played at the same time as the trading hours of many stock markets around the world. According to ECB statistics, there are 15 large stock markets including: Germany, England, France, Italy, Spain, Denmark, Netherlands, America, South Africa, Argentina, etc., there are 3 points worth Note the following:

(1) In the market of some countries, for every game with a national team (such as England, France) participating, the average number of orders reduced by 45%, the volume of trading shares decreased by 55%. .

(2) The market is affected by the matches. Specifically, after a match, each country’s stock index fell an average of 5%. This reduction was statistically significant at lunchtime after the morning session, and many investors did not pay attention.

(3) The global stock market’s temperature is contrary to the World Cup matches, in more than 20% of the time the games are played, global stocks fall. Investors seem to be willing to spend more money on alcohol and popcorn than focus on price lists during this time.

Another 2007 study also showed that during the World Cup, a defeat of the national team could make that national stock market drop sharply the next day.

Slight increases in the stock market of the winning country

After the World Cup, markets with national teams that have won the championship have always gained points since 1974. The only external case for Brazil in 2002, the rest of those markets rose immediately after that to the average. 3.5% and maintained for 3 months.

The stock market of the losing country lost points

In the Goldman Sachs report, 7 out of 9 stock markets of the losers in the final also suffered a “sharp decline” with an average decrease of 5.6% in the following three months.

Another study, entitled ‘Love for Sport and Profit from Securities’, lists statistics from 1100 matches and stock market yields of 39 countries, showing that each team has a In the qualifying round, the country’s stock market fell 0.5% the next day.

There are no serious consequences for the value of stocks or the country’s economy, but simply the mood of investors affected. That’s why the World Cup defeats have more serious consequences than the European Championship or other sports such as baseball, basketball, cricket, rugby … Especially, the most serious impact in “crazy football” countries like Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain.

The US market is always down after every World Cup

A study by Israeli experts said the average post-World Cup US stock market plunged 2.6%, calculated over 14 of the last 15 World Cups. This may seem unusual, because Americans prefer rugby football. However, one-third of transactions on the US stock market are carried out by foreign investors. So after every World Cup round, with the number of national teams going up, there are some foreign investors sad.

Movements of stocks are very different on stock exchanges

Statistics on STMicroelectronics (STM) shares traded on Italian and French stock exchanges showed different up / down trends of this stock on both exchanges when impacted by football matches.

Normally, a firm’s stock will have the same direction of increase / decrease on international exchanges. However, in the 2-1 World Cup victory against South Africa, STM shares fell sharply every time South Africa scored but did not happen in the Italian market. Similarly, after Italy lost to Slovakia, STM slumped on the Milan stock exchange, but not in Paris.